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availability cascade
An availability cascade is a self-reinforcing cycle that explains the development of certain kinds of collective beliefs. A novel idea or insight, usually one that seems to explain a complex process in a simple or straightforward manner, gains rapid currency in the popular discourse by its very simplicity and by its apparent insightfulness. Its rising popularity triggers a chain reaction within the social network: individuals adopt the new insight because other people within the network have adopted it, and on its face it seems plausible. The reason for this increased use and popularity of the new idea involves both the availability of the previously obscure term or idea, and the need of individuals using the term or idea to appear to be current with the stated beliefs and ideas of others, regardless of whether they in fact fully believe in the idea that they are expressing. Their need for social acceptance, and the apparent sophistication of the new insight, overwhelm their critical thinking.
The idea of the availability cascade was first developed by Timur Kuran and Cass Sunstein as a variation of information cascades mediated by the availability heuristic, with the addition of reputational cascades.〔Kuran, Timur, and Sunstein, Cass, (Availability Cascades and Risk Regulation ), Stanford Law Review, Vol. 51, No. 4 (1999).〕 The availability cascade concept has been highly influential in finance theory and regulatory research, particular with respect to assessing and regulating risk.
==Cascade elements==
Availability cascades occur in a society via public discourse (e.g. the public sphere and the news media) or over social networks—sets of linked actors in one or more of several roles. These actors process incoming information to form their private beliefs according to various rules, both rational and semi-rational. The semi-rational rules include the heuristics, in particular the availability heuristic. The actors then behave and express their public beliefs according to self-interest, which might cause their publicly expressed beliefs to deviate from their privately held beliefs. In The Tipping Point, Malcolm Gladwell defines three significant roles: connectors, mavens ("information specialists"), and salesmen ("persuaders"). Kuran and Sunstein emphasize the role of availability entrepreneurs, agents willing to invest resources into promoting a belief in order to derive some personal benefit. Other availability entrepreneurs with opposing interests may wage availability counter-campaigns. Other key roles include journalists and politicians, both of which are subject to economic and reputational pressures, the former in competition in the media, the latter for political status. As resources (e.g. attention and money) are limited, beliefs compete with one another in the "availability market". A given incident and subsequent availability campaign may succeed in raising the availability of one issue at the expense of other issues.〔
抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』
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